Middle East Strategy and Obama

“You made some comments in the newsletter introduction last week about Obama’s speech at the UN. While there is no shortage of critics of Obama’s lack of a strategy in the region what I don’t see is anyone offering an intelligent alternative. What do you think we should do in the Middle East?”. ~ Don K.

Don, thanks for the question. First and foremost, as most of you are aware, I consider Obama’s foreign policy to be his largest failing and undoubtedly view our actions in the Middle East though a less then unbiased lens. I will attempt to explain a thought process I do not agree with, while pointing out competing opinions on the subject.

Obama’s actions and inactions have closed doors to potential options that were less costly in the past. It has also opened doors to potential options that, unfortunately, most observers like myself view as unlikely to bear fruit. Sadly, regardless of good or bad strategy, the end state of our current strategy in the Middle East is an all but certain degradation of our influence in the region. The degradation of influence ultimately paints us into a corner where the only remaining option to maintain U. S. interests in the region is military force.

Rebuilding our influence in the region will certainly fall to the to the next U. S. president. To save you the read, the short answer is all that we can do is wait until after the election. The current administration has set the course we are on, and Obama has proven stubbornly resistant to changing it. The most poignant evidence of that resistance is the revolving doors in leadership at the department of defense and intelligence communities. The course he is pursuing is a nearly 180-degree shift from the previous 35 years, and it will take time for us, our allies and our enemies to understand its implications. The best I can offer is to review the administration’s strategy and where it may leave us in a year because what we are currently doing is defining the options that will be available to us in the future.

The most common mistake I see when discussing Obama’s strategy in the Middle East is to claim that it does not exist. That is very different from claiming it is ineffective, poorly conceived, etc… Obama has a strategy, and that strategy largely consists of disengagement and Counter Terrorism. These are based on his perception that U. S. voters are more tired of U. S. casualties (military or civilian) then they are of a degradation of long-term U. S. interests. In this case, he has proven his strategy to be effective in that we re-elected him on that platform.

U. S. interests in the Middle East primarily consist of Energy Stability, Nuclear Non-proliferation, Counter Terrorism and the Expansion of Democracy. Traditional instruments of national power are Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic. We’ll take a very cursory look at the strategies Obama has employed, and what impact they have had in hopes of providing an increased understanding of our options and how they developed and have shifted.

During his second term, Obama has effectively limited our military engagement to Counter-Terrorism (CT). I have read a few pieces attempting to defend this decision as “the desire of the American people”, or “the only economically sustainable option”. Killing specific individuals that have the potential to coordinate and act in the United States is a very intelligence dependent operation. Using air power and drone strikes more broadly as this administration is prone to do has its own set of unintended consequences called “collateral damage”. The bottom line is that killing terrorists is a delaying action, which buys time to allow us to develop other long-term solutions. You cannot simply delay your way to any sort of victory.

As we disengage from the region, CT becomes more dependent on our partners to provide intelligence required to target specific individuals effectively. As we know, our alliances in the region are prone to shifting, and foremost driven by short-term self-interest. As power is consolidated in denied areas like ISIS controlled territory, we lose the ability to effectively employ a CT strategy. The real problem with a combination of disengagement and CT is the two approaches become mutually exclusive at a certain point. Very soon, we will be too blind to effectively employ a CT strategy under the current state of engagement.

When it comes to Nuclear Non-Proliferation, the treaty has all but wiped it from the list of U. S. concerns. The agreement provides an effective 150 Billion dollar stimulus package to Iran to support their sudden new desire not to become a nuclear power. There are some potential short-term delays in their ability to produce a weapon should they choose to, which are largely unverifiable. While we may have potentially extended their nuclear horizon by months or years, that extension is dependent on estimates based on the capabilities and facilities we are aware of. The lack of effective inspection makes this a dubious prospect at best. The strategy is ultimately based on an olive branch approach to trust Iran to change course.

The ultimate goal here is once again not a lack of strategy, but a diplomatic and economic strategy to entice Iran to join the western world on friendly and constructive terms. I consider this to be a naïve departure from the effective strategies that have kept the Iranian Theocracy in check for the past 35 years. It is, however, possible that Iran abandons its nuclear ambitions and partners with America making a legitimate effort to help it’s new partner with other interests in the region. While highly unlikely, that is the strategy we are executing under this treaty. The next president will have the task of dealing with the results.

Energy stability is the third piece of the equation. Here we seem to see the same strategy of diplomatically and economically enticing Iran to play nicely with the rest of the world. Effectively, energy stability means the ability to ship oil from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world through the Straight of Hormuz. Iran has been the source of any disruption in the straight for the past 35 years. Having them as a legitimate friend vice a well-heeled dog may be of some intangible benefit in the future, but keeping them heeled has worked quite effectively. What exactly that benefit may be is impossible to know.

Russia is the largest beneficiary of disruption in the straight as it increases the price of oil to a point where they can cost-effectively export. The relatively recent Russian partnership with Iran on Syria, ISIS, and Iraq certainly shifts the incentives for Iran away from U.S interests in the region. Currently, Russia is using ISIS as an excuse to bomb U. S. trained anti-Syrian forces. Our response has been non-existent. Russia has effectively stepped into the vacuum we created and has aligned with Iran, Syria, and Iraq. What it will demand in return can be expected to be in line with Russian interests which are rarely in concert with U. S. interests.

Lastly, when we look at the expansion of democracy, we abandoned the fledgling democracy in Iraq in 2012 knowing full well what the consequences of that decision would be. We have diplomatically isolated Israel and put their long-term survivability in the region at risk. This is not unintentional, nor a lack of a strategy. This is rooted in Obama’s belief that U. S. exceptionalism is a counter-productive to global cooperation, and that non-democratic forms of governance like Iran and Syria have some undefined value to the global community. This view is not something we can change for the next year.

The real casualty of Obama’s policies and actions in the Middle East is U. S. creditability with both our allies and our traditional enemies. We see that lack of respect or fear from Israel to Moscow, and Tehran to Istanbul. Israel is now engaging Russia on the issue of regional stability at both the diplomatic and intelligence sharing level. America is no longer seen as a potential threat nor a reliable partner in the region. That is where the next administration will have its largest challenge is rebuilding American creditability.

What does a credible Middle East strategy look like a year from now? It depends entirely on the good graces of Iran and Russia to be responsible state actors in the region, or the alternative that they are not. We have largely succeeded nearly all influence in the region on the prospect of “Hope” that they will “Change”. My suspicion is that we will have to rebuild that influence largely by force.

What remains to be seen is the impact of diplomacy on Iran. I suspect this approach will be a catastrophic failure. I sincerely hope I am wrong, and we can make headway on stability in the region over the next year. Regardless, when we look to Putin and Khomeini, Assad, Netanyahu, and the rest of Middle East leadership, the U. S. disengagement from the region has put us on the bench as a bystander dependent largely on the actions of Iran and Russia.

Unfortunately, until Mr. Obama’s experiment has run its course, we have almost no ability to predict what avenues will be open to us, and which will be closed. Asking what we should do in this environment is an unanswerable question, because we are doing has no basis in traditional or historic approaches. Once we have an administration that defines regional stability in terms of U. S. interests vice a diplomatic experiment, then perhaps we will be able to make some assessments.

I realize that provides no firm answer, but I see no strategy that Obama is willing to employ that has traditionally been used to enhance U. S. interests. Answering what we should have done is an exercise in futility at this point because those opportunities are relics of the past. I hope this at least provides some insight in the processes at play in the formulation of a strategy in the Middle East.

Author ~ Patrick Henry

Source: http://aegisacademy.com/community/middle-east-strategy/

Concealed Carry Weapon Permit in Orange County, Part II

This article is Part II of a III part series on the concealed carry weapon process. In this article we will be discussing 1) Selecting an instructor, 2) Selecting a firearm, 3) Clothing.

So you have decided you want to be able to legally carry a concealed firearm; this comes with a lot of responsibility and is not to be taken lightly. Be sure you take the required training seriously and invest some time in selecting an instructor.

I am going to give you some things to consider when making the decision to select an instructor. Make sure you are getting your money’s worth from an instructor who has real, verifiable experience related to carrying a firearm for his or her profession. In my opinion, your instructor should have military and or law enforcement experience. There is a big difference between an instructor who has had to carry a firearm for work in real world conditions and one who has not.

There is no substitute for experience — period. Law Enforcement personnel carry guns on their person when they are working and most carry firearms concealed when they are off duty. As a community they have the most real world ccw experience of any type of people you might come across. They are up to date on the newest types of firearms, training, ammo and equipment. You should want to take advantage of their experience to help you weed through what works and what doesn’t work.

An instructor who is prior law enforcement can also tell you what you could expect if you had to use your firearm to defend yourself. He or she may be able to give you some advice on how the process works and some of the do’s and don’ts.


Pick up the phone and ask to speak to the instructor who is teaching the course. Inquire as to his or her background. Ask the instructor if they have a ccw themselves. If the instructor does not have a ccw for the state he or she is teaching inquire as to why. How can an instructor teach a course on ccw if they themselves do not have one? If the instructor has a ccw ask him or her how long they have had it. Ask the instructor if he or she was prior military or law enforcement? Remember there is no substitute for experience.

Once you have selected your instructor complete the required training course and submit a copy of your certificate of completion to the sheriff’s department either through fax or email.

Selecting a firearm:

You may already have this part figured out. If not discuss it with your instructor so they can help guide you on your purchase or selection. I suggest if you are unsure that you go to a local gun range and try out a few different guns to see what works best for you. Keep in mind a couple of important factors: a.) in Orange County you can have a maximum of three firearms on your permit, b.) the firearms must be registered to you, c.) the sheriff’s department will check to see if the guns you list on your application are registered to you, if they are not you will not be able to add them to your permit, and d.) the firearm must not be altered from its original factory design — meaning you cannot change the internals of the firearm. For example, you cannot change or alter the trigger in any fashion such as installing an aftermarket trigger kit or having a gunsmith alter the factory components so that the trigger is lighter or smoother. You can change the cosmetics if you want such as the color, the sights, and/or the grips.

Clothing:

 

You will have to decide how you are going to carry. Most people have no idea how this can affect their daily life until they try and leave the house carrying a concealed gun on their person. For example, if you are carrying a gun inside the waistband you may have to buy a pair of pants that is one size larger to make room for the gun. You will probably need to buy a sturdy belt that can support the weight of a gun.

You may need to start wearing a light jacket or a button up shirt to help conceal the gun you are carrying. More than likely you will need to make some changes to your wardrobe. The last thing you want to happen to you is for you to accidently expose your gun while you are out in public. (I will be doing another article that will cover Unwarranted Detection.) Law enforcement officers know this inside and out as a result of experience. If you have an instructor who is prior law enforcement, be sure to ask for their advice on this subject.

In closing, remember to always store your firearm in a safe and lawful manner and always adhere to the terms and conditions of your permit. If you want to reach me directly feel free to contact me via email.

Author : Jason Granados

shootsafe@outlook.com

First Posted on Aegis Academy

Obtaining a Concealed Carry Weapon Permit in Orange County

I decided to write this article to try and provide some insight into the Conceal Carry Weapon (CCW) permit process. This article is Part 1 on a series of articles I will be writing related to CCW. Please check back with us so you can read the complete series.

I have come across many people who have not even tried to obtain a California CCW out of fear of being denied. Fortunately and possibly due in part to some recent court decisions, obtaining a CCW firearms permit has become much easier.

For the most part, the process will look very similar no matter where in California you might live. Being that I am an Orange County approved CCW instructor, I will write about obtaining a concealed carry weapon permit in Orange County.

Orange County CCW Process

You will first want to contact the sheriff’s department in the county you reside in. Most city police agencies have an understanding with the sheriff's department that they will defer CCW applicants to the sheriff’s department for processing.

Once you are in contact with a sheriff’s department representative, request an initial interview. Depending on your jurisdiction, you may be able to do this through the department’s website. Essentially, you provide your name and email and within a few days you should receive a response to your email, which will include your appointment date, time and location. Now, don't let the email scare you. It will probably tell you that your appointment date is six to twelve months away, but you have to start the process sometime!

Fortunately, there is good news. What typically happens as your interview date draws nearer is you receive an additional email telling you that an earlier date is available, and asking you if you want that appointment instead. This can shorten your wait time by months at a time. Be sure to keep track of the initial email despite anticipating a second email: the initial email will also have an attached CCW application and checklist.

Preparing for the interview

Be prepared! Make sure you have brought in everything that was requested by the sheriff’s department including a completed application, proof of residency, a driver’s license or some form of government identification such as a passport, a birth certificate, and a recently taken passport quality photo. There will be a checklist; be sure you have brought in all the items on the list in order to expedite the process. You may want to consider dressing professionally, it can only help you.

Meeting with the investigator for your interview may sound intimidating, but in most cases it is a very easy, relaxed process. The investigator will go over your completed application with you. Depending upon your background he or she may ask you to clarify a few things. Be truthful about everything. At the conclusion of the interview, which will take probably less than 20 minutes, the investigator will have you sign your application in their presence under penalty of perjury. Remember what I said about being truthful!

In all my dealings with these law enforcement professionals I have always found them to be very easy to deal with. I am sure you will leave there feeling like that was a lot easier than you thought it would be.

Residency Check:

In Orange County you can expect that a uniformed deputy will be knocking on your door within the first week of submitting your application. The sheriff’s department must verify that you live in the county and at the address you provided. If you are not home they will knock on your neighbors’ doors to see if anyone can verify that you live at the address you provided. The deputies will not discuss with the neighbors the reason for the request, so it may leave your neighbors a little curious.

Once the residency check is completed and verified you move to the next step, which is rather informal. An initial background check will be done on you and your file is sent up the chain of command for initial approval. A supervisor will look over your file to make sure nothing is missing. If there is nothing out of the ordinary you will move forward to the next step.

Initial Approval:

About 4-6 weeks after your initial interview you may receive an initial approval email. The email will state that you have been initially approved to move forward in the process. The email will include instructions on completing your live scan and on completing your CCW training course. Be sure to complete the live scan as soon as possible because it can take 4-8 weeks for your background to be conducted and cleared. Next, select an instructor (look for an upcoming article on how to select an instructor) from the approved list, complete your initial CCW training course, and obtain your certificate.  Send a copy of your course certificate to the sheriff’s department CCW unit either through email or fax.

Final Approval:

Once you have completed all of the above there is nothing more to do except wait for your background to be completed. If you are approved by the department you will receive a final approval email. The email will have a date for you to return to the sheriff’s department to sign the terms and conditions and pick up your new permit.

In Closing:

Carrying a concealed firearm is a big responsibility. Negligent discharges are important reminders of how serious this responsibility should be taken. Negligent discharges can occur for a variety of reasons, but it is usually the fault of the person holding the gun. Many people who first obtain their CCW become over confident in their skill set. Just because you have been approved to carry a loaded gun doesn’t mean you have developed the necessary skills to do so! Most of the negligent discharges that I have witnessed occurred when the shooter was either drawing or holstering their firearm. It is in your responsibility to practice on a regular basis. I would suggest you continue your training and education by enrolling in further firearms training to supplement your CCW course. Lastly, always store your firearm in a lawful manner; and always adhere to the terms and conditions of your permit.

I hope you have found this article helpful. If you have questions feel free to contact me directly via email.

Author: Jason Granados (Firearms Instructor)

Jason Granados is a law enforcement veteran with more than 10 years experience. His duties and responsibilities were as follows. He spent more than five years assigned to the departments special tactics unit. During his time in this unit he was a supervisor in the unit as well as the team leader. He also served as the departments firearms instructor where he taught pistol, shotgun and carbine. During this time he was responsible for maintaining the departments qualification standards. Jason has also testified in State Superior Court as a firearms expert. Jason also has more than 10 years experience in martial arts and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Jason continues to compete in Martial Arts competitions and is currently ranked #5 in the world by the International Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Federation.

Source: http://aegisacademy.com/community/obtaining-a-concealed-carry-weapon-permit-in-orange-county/

Everytown for gun safety and the Impact of Social Media

The Impact of Social Media on Social Change

Everytown for Gun Safety hired Jeremy Heimans’ company Purpose to promote its cause of restricting Americans Second Amendment rights via local legislation. The message they push is reducing gun violence. Mr. Heimans is a social media expert, and a liberal activist. He opposes war, guns, anything remotely anti-gay and actively supports the LGBT rights movements and the delivery of aid to Syrian fighters on both sides of the conflict. Jeremy’s company is doing a very effective job leveraging social media to create awareness, but I am not sure he has cracked the code on converting that to social change, yet.

I was watching him speak about “New Power” vs. what he calls “Old Power” which he presented publicly at a TED talk in Berlin last month. You can watch the presentation below. The concept of social movements has been studied in depth in a variety of educational departments; history, economics, sociology and others I am sure. Jeremy’s supposition is that there is power in large groups. Using Occupy Wall Street as one example of the power of social media, he makes a bit of a leap in extrapolating awareness to what he calls "New Power", but he readily admits that "New Power" may not be effective.

Awareness is step one

When we look at social change and the impact of successful social movements, women’s suffrage, the civil rights movement, or the Indian independence movement, they share some commonalities. They created awareness, built consensus, established specific, identifiable goals and converted on social popularity to enact governmental change. The Tea Party is a good example of a social movement that is still struggling to identify its unifying and specific objectives. Despite the lack of specific objectives, they have managed to drive some measures of change in the Republican Party.

The ability to "touch" a million or a billion people is certainly an interesting proposition. Flash mobs, occupy Wall Street, and Iranian social disturbances provide us some example of the short-term impact that social media can have. The question I was having a hard time rectifying is what did these movements accomplish? If the goal was social awareness, well then social media is clearly a win as it reduces the amount of time it takes to raise awareness. If the goal is social change, then I am having a much harder time finding effective parallels. The supposition that awareness drives change is inaccurate (and not one that he directly makes in his presentation). The real interesting point to me is how and what do we need to do to establish an effective conversion rate that equates to change?

Awareness does not equal change

Change takes work. Existing, entrenched power structures "Old Power" as Mr. Heimans likes to call it, is unlikely to simply turn over the keys to the kingdom because "New Power" yells loudly. There has to be incentive to change, specific objectives or demands, and ultimately it has to be legitimate cause. It’s not enough to be angry, you also have to be unified and specific in your demands, and ultimately right – or the movement falters and dies.

The million-man march was orchestrated by Louis Farrahkan, the African American Leadership Summit, The Nation of Islam and the NAACP. The march was largely orchestrated in response to the Republican 1994 congressional victories, which left the black minority community feeling vulnerable to exploitation. The March took place on October 16, 1995, nearly a year later. Ultimately, it pushed for “opportunity in the black community”, and nearly 20 years later, most will estimate that its loosely defined goals remain largely unattained. The black community certainly suffers a higher proportional share of social ills then other groups in society, but being right was not enough. What did “opportunity” consist of – specifically?

Conversely, the Occupy Wall Street movement resulted in millions of people globally taking part over the course of about 3 months of intense activism. The real spark was the Hacker group Anonymous promoting the cause in New York. The resultant global change was much like the million man march, beyond a short term flash point and media attention, not much… Occupy Wall Streets’ demand; End Consumerism! I suppose it is specific, but it’s simply the wrong goal. Do you really believe people can simply stop purchasing and go back to a barter system, trading in only what we need to survive? What is impressive about Occupy Wall Street was that it was organized in a few short months and sparked global actions. People did more than simply click the like button, they showed up.

Migrating Awareness to Commitment

What technology and social media enables us to do is tap into a wider range of people. People like to be angry, and stomp their feet over the social injustice. The problem, is in the past it was social injustice of the century or the decade and the time and effort to organize forced organizers to distill the ideas to a simple understandable goals that busy people could commit to. Now it’s more like the social injustice of the week, and next week, most of the crowd will have moved on. Awareness is no longer the issue, its now converting awareness to commitment that becomes the crux.

Back to Jeremy’s social campaign to drive Everytown for Gun Safety forward. Largely, like most of Mr. Bloomberg’s anti gun campaigns, this too is failing. It is not failing due to a lack of awareness. It is failing because it is simply a bad idea promoted under demonstrably false pretenses. The question we need to ask is why is society largely unaware of the facts surrounding gun ownership, yet so willing to become aware of the fabrications? The answer is Mr. Heiman’s theory of “New Power”. If the packaging of the message is marginal, you can expect a marginal response – regardless of the quality of the message. If the packaging is done right, people will pay attention to even falsehoods.

As we saw in the last election cycle, packaging and spending is insufficient to drive change. People are still capable of discerning facts from nonsense. No matter how you package bull-shit, it takes more then a slick wrapper to make a nation of free people consume it. That is what happened to Bloomberg’s Gun control candidates and propositions in 2014. The reality is social value is still defined by a relatively discerning population, and they know when they are being lied to.

While we can complain about the fact that John Lott is largely ignored, but that is largely our fault. The messaging is not reaching the people we need it reach. We have failed to define a socially supportable cause that connects with the masses. I have heard from some of my colleagues state that those people are unreachable, too ignorant to understand, or not worth our time. My response is that attitude is lazy, ineffective and exactly what keeps the perception that gun owners are cave dwellers alive. Touting the Second Amendment is simply not reaching a large enough percentage of the population. We have facts, the law and social welfare on our side. The only thing limiting the Second Amendment movement is the packaging.

The NRA has made leaps and bounds in pushing quality images, content and using social media much more effectively in the past three years but we can still learn a lot from Jeremy Heimans and Purpose. Just imagine what Jeremy could accomplish if he chose to support a legitimate cause… Imagine what we can accomplish if we simply package the truth in a socially popular format!

Stay safe, and stay engaged!

About Author

Patrick Henry - President and Firearm Trainer

Patrick Henry received his operational training and experience from the U. S. Government, 22 years of which were spent in the Marine Corps where he served in the Reconnaissance, Infantry and Intelligence fields. During his active service, he spent more then seven years deployed overseas in combat, operational and training assignments. After the military, Pat worked as a contractor and as the Director of Operations at a private paramilitary company, specializing in training special operations forces and providing protective services to select private clients. His education consists of an MBA from the University of Southern California (USC), and a BS from San Diego State University with an emphasis in Biochemistry, Cell and Molecular Biology and a minor in Psychology. He holds an extensive list of security and training related certifications from a variety of government and nationally recognized entities. He currently sits on the advisory committee at USC’s Master of Veterans Business Program, and is an active member of Infraguard and the American Society of Industrial Security (ASIS). He has been a guest speaker at ASIS, the San Diego Industrial Security Awareness Council and other private organizations on physical security, travel security, and competitive intelligence collection counter-measures.

First Published at Aegis Academy